¹ 5 - 2004
Fenenko A.V.

The Future of Nuclear Deterrence: Discussions and Realities

An attempt is made in the article to answer the question whether “nuclear deterrence” conceived as a system of views and as “real-political” practice, will prove able to adapt itself to the conditions of the swiftly changing world. The author retraces the evolution of this concept at the stretch of the second half of the 20th century, points to the differences in its interpretations by home and Western analysts. He relates the phenomenon of “destruction of nuclear deterrence” to the creation of high precision weapon and of weapon as powerful as the nuclear one, but not bringing a global ecological disaster — which resulted in the appearance of scenarios of a “realistic” nuclear war. In the author’s opinion, an entirely new conception of “deterrence” is rapidly forming under modern conditions. Its main mission is now seen in keeping in check negative world political processes (international terrorism, Islamic extremism e.a.), and as for pursuing a policy of preventing global war, it implies to an ever greater extent recourse to limited force actions, including ones with nuclear weapon or its analogues used.