№ 4 - 2013
Malkov S.Yu., Korotayev A.V., Isayev L.M., Kuzminova Ye.V.
On Methods of Estimating Current Condition and of Forecasting Social Instability: Attempted Quantitative Analysis of the Events of the Arab Spring

The anti-regime actions that began in 2011 and in the same year began to be everywhere named the Arab spring, seized practically all Arab countries, except Somalia, Djibouti and Comoros – all situated at the periphery of the Arab Orient. The said events of 2011 exerted considerable influence on the very specter of further political development and somewhere even cardinally changed the existing political regimes. This work presents “reconnaissance by data analysis” and is an endeavor of quantitative estimation of socio-political commotions, with the aim to elaborate the methods of counting up the instability index, that would allow to evaluate potential of “conflictogeneousness” in Arab countries.