№ 4 - 2012
Blagoveshchensky Yu.N., Krechetova M.Yu., Satarov G.A.
Expert-Statistical, Bayesian Approach to Political Prognostication Scenarios

The authors expose foundations of a new approach to political prognostication scenarios – the one based on special procedures of alienating expert knowledge and on statistical methods of analyzing expert assessments, with the Bayesian method applied. Making use of a number of experiments realized within the period between 2005 and 2012, they demonstrate some of the principal results of middle-term and operative forecasts of the political developments in Russia. The authors adduce their considerations as to: certain problems of the disclosed method; probable prospects of its further development; alternative spheres of its application.