№ 4 - 2009
Timofeyev I.N.
Security Dilemma. Risk of Armed Conflict between the Great Powers

The purpose set by the author of the article is to explain realistically great powers’ armed conflicts, accounting for them by referring to such real factors, as the dynamics of countries’ military expenditures. The author’s main hypothesis implies that armed conflicts are preceded by Intensive or chaotic growth of competing actors’ capabilities, which itself increases uncertainty of the situation and the risk of “the worst scenario”. The above mentioned intensity and chaos are conceptualized in terms of the complexity theory and are measured by the basic Verhulst process model.