№ 4 - 2008
Melville A.Yu., Timofeyev I.N.
Russia 2020: Alternative Scenarios and Public Preferences

In the article, on the basis of a scenario approach, possible trajectories of Russia’s future, up to 2020, are determined. Considered as driving forces of the scenarios are: influence of outside surroundings on Russia; character of socio-economic and political modernization; quality and characteristics of the political regime; logic of the relations between the center and the regions. Four alternative scenarios are analyzed: «the Kremlin gambit», «Stronghold Russia», «Russian mosaics», «New dream». By method of focus-groups, desirability and probability of realization of corresponding scenarios are determined, as depended on party preferences of the respondents. The research is crowned with a number of unexpected results insofar as it refers to the vision by respondents of the alternative trajectories of the country’s development and to the role of the party factor in guessing right the likeness and the difference of their positions.