5 - 2007
Artyushkin V.F.

Regional Conflicts and the Process of Price Formation in the World Oil Market


In the article, the author takes up to consider processes determining price formation in the world oil market. A statistically verified mathematical model is offered, that allows to single out those changes of the world demand that are caused by the specific nature of the market. Probable causes are discussed, of the discrepancy between the model calculations, on the one hand, and the real state of the market, on the other. The search for explanations is realized with the application of political event analysis covering the past thirty years. Some theses are formulated in the article that make it possible to work out principles of price forecasting with both economic and political processes taken into account.