№ 1 - 2006
Kazantzev A.A.
Three Scenarios of a “Coloured” Revolution in Russia (Modelling the Net Dynamics of the Russian Polity)

Is revolution possible in modern Russia? Under what conditions may it take place? In search of answers to these questions the author turns to analysis of the net dynamics of the Russian political system. The model of revolutionary net dynamics, which he offers, is based on the hypothesis that what is inherent in the Russian political system at all its levels, are value-based integration, dualistic “vision of the world”, and institutions of an imperial type. In society like this, revolutions inevitably take the form of “transformation from within human spirit”. This means that reasons of revolutions in Russia should be sought rather in the sphere of social consciousness than in real social practices. At that, the “switches” of social macro-processes leading to revolution, are here to be found in the centre of the system. In other words, revolutions in Russia are possible almost anytime, but efficient and tough power can almost anytime avert them. According to the author’s conclusion, today a re-volution can be “started up” by: (1) partial liberalization of the regime, with the latter happening to completely lose its ability to function; (2) an intra-elite split provoked by a “revolution from up”; and, finally, (3) by unexpected death (natural or violent) of head of state, with no legitimate “successor” available.