№ 1 - 2005
Gelman V.Ya.
Lessons of Ukrainian

In the article, an attempt has been made to look upon the developments of December, 2004 in Ukraine in the light of the political regimes transformation model elaborated by the author with the use of the material of comparative study of Russian regions. On considering “prehistory of the matter” (development of the country’s political institutions and political elites) and on analyzing the dynamics of the conflicts and alliances of the principal political actors at the elections of 2004, the author advances the supposition that Ukraine has embarked on the path that has since 1989 been followed by the countries of Eastern Europe. A conflict that threatened to grow into “war of all against all”, resulted in the withdrawal from a situation of indefiniteness after a model of “struggle according to the rules”, which created, even if not democracy in Ukraine, yet a “democratic situation” favourable for its formation. In the author’s estimate, the trend of the institutional innovations adopted in the course of the conflict (amplification of the parliament’s powers, curtailment of the president of his power, transition to proportional electoral system, and decentralization) is such, that, given certain conditions, they may rule out the probability of the power being monopolized after the “winner takes all” principle.