№ 1 - 2004
Malinovsky P.V.
What Awaits Russia in the Nearest Half-Year? (Political Scenarios)

To answer the question entered in the title of his article, the author tries to reason out the dynamics of global changes that may be considered possible in the nearest future, and, furthermore, attempts to clear up and point out those factors of Russia’s internal political life, that may influence the course of the presidential election campaign. Proceeding from the analysis performed, he supposes a number of varying scenarios of forthcoming developments in Russia, dividing these scenarios into conservative, radical, and extreme ones. But, P.V. Malinovsky concludes, whichever of the presented scenarios turns out realized, they all point to a very high level of Russia’s dependence on global processes and to impossibility of “screening” the country from world-scale and regional crises.