№ 2 - 2002
Panarin S.A.
Positional-Historical Factors of the Caucasian Politics

The author prognosticates further evolution of the political situation in the Caucasian region (CR) on the basis of the analysis of such factors as: particular features of the region’s physical geography, as well as ethno-confessional particular features; its location amid the surrounding expanses; overtopicalization in the consciousness of the people’s masses and of the actors of political process, of a number of elements of historical heritage. Pointing to the prevalence in the CR of resource and demographic disbalances, to the presence of a meridional axe of confessional tensions and to excessive agent polycentricity, the author comes to the conclusion about inevitable collision in the CR of differently aimed geopolitical orientations. In S.A.Panarin’s opinion, within the nearest 5 to 7 years national-state consciousness in the region will hardly develop significantly enough as to achieve a stage at which it would be appropriate to estimate it as civil and civilized; and the knots of interethnic conflict will most probably retain appreciable influence both on the internal situation in the CR and on the configuration of the international relations in connection with, and around the Caucasus.